In a report published on February 6, 2026, analysts warn that the 'cold war' between Addis Ababa and the Tigray region is rapidly reaching a boiling point. The most significant military engagement since the 2022 peace deal occurred on January 27 in the disputed area of Tselemti, with intermittent skirmishes continuing through early February around Waldiba and Mechara. These clashes involve federal forces and Amhara militias against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The proximity of these battles to the Eritrean border and the continued occupation of northern Tigray pockets by Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) have led international observers to fear a 'spill-back' effect. As of today, the equilibrium established by the Pretoria Accord is considered to be on the verge of collapse, with Eritrea's military posture along the border remaining highly aggressive as Asmara seeks to maintain its influence over the disputed territories.