As of late February 2026, the Horn of Africa is facing a critical security inflection point characterized by the potential collapse of the 2022 Ethiopian peace framework and the escalation of Sudan's civil war. Ethiopia has issued a military ultimatum to Eritrea regarding border incursions and Red Sea access, while simultaneously triggering internal unrest by redrawing electoral boundaries in disputed Tigrayan territories. In Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have achieved significant territorial gains in Darfur, utilizing drone technology that has drawn UN Security Council condemnation. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continues to exploit regional instability to launch lethal attacks in Somalia and plan operations in Kenya, further straining a region already burdened by famine and institutional transitions. ### STRATEGIC DRIVERS - Ethiopian federal restructuring of electoral boundaries in disputed Tigray-Amhara zones, undermining the Pretoria Agreement. - Ethiopia's strategic pursuit of Red Sea access (Assab) and the resulting sovereignty friction with Eritrea. - Proliferation of drone technology and electronic warfare (GPS jamming) by non-state and state actors in Sudan and the Red Sea. - The security vacuum in Somalia created by the transition of African Union peacekeeping responsibilities to national forces. - The failure of international mediation to secure a ceasefire in Sudan, leading to a 'no surrender' stance by the SAF and RSF territorial consolidation. ### FUTURE OUTLOOK The immediate outlook suggests a high probability of localized skirmishes escalating into a full-scale interstate conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea if diplomatic interventions by Saudi Arabia and the AU fail. Sudan is likely to face a deepening humanitarian catastrophe and potential state fragmentation as the RSF expands its footprint in Darfur and Kordofan. In Somalia, Al-Shabaab will likely intensify operations during Ramadan, testing the resilience of the Somali National Army. Maritime security in the Red Sea will remain volatile, shifting from kinetic missile strikes to more sophisticated electronic and hybrid threats through 2027.