The Horn of Africa is currently navigating a period of high-stakes volatility characterized by the potential collapse of the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement and shifting regional alliances. In Ethiopia, the TPLF has issued a final warning regarding the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA), citing unfulfilled territorial promises and renewed military friction. Simultaneously, the Ethiopian federal government is tightening domestic control—evidenced by the expulsion of international media and a strategic rebranding of the ruling Prosperity Party—while facing allegations of involvement in the Sudanese conflict via secret RSF training camps. Eritrea, while projecting an image of stability through military commemorations and Red Sea diplomacy with Saudi Arabia, faces an underlying existential threat due to the absence of a clear leadership succession plan for President Isaias Afwerki. ### STRATEGIC DRIVERS - Erosion of the Pretoria Peace Accord due to unfulfilled territorial and humanitarian commitments in Tigray. - Allegations of Ethiopian-Emirati collaboration in hosting Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF) training facilities. - Strategic electoral maneuvering by Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party ahead of the June 2026 general elections. - Eritrean succession anxiety and the lack of institutionalized power-sharing mechanisms. - Geopolitical competition for Red Sea security involving Saudi Arabian and Eritrean bilateral interests. ### FUTURE OUTLOOK The region faces a high risk of renewed large-scale conflict in Northern Ethiopia if African Union intervention fails to stabilize the TPLF-Federal relationship. Ethiopia's diplomatic isolation may increase following crackdowns on international press and its alleged proxy role in Sudan. In Eritrea, the short-term focus on military pageantry and maritime security masks a fragile domestic core; any sudden leadership transition in Asmara could trigger a power struggle with severe implications for regional stability. The June 2026 Ethiopian elections will likely serve as a flashpoint for further domestic tension as the ruling party shifts its narrative toward agricultural self-sufficiency and national 'satisfaction'.