On February 18, 2026, reports from diplomatic circles in Addis Ababa and Ankara have signaled a significant breakdown in the strategic objectives of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Following a series of high-stakes meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Ethiopian government’s attempt to find a negotiated settlement for the brewing tensions with Eritrea and the TPLF has reached an impasse. The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) remains heavily deployed in the northern regions, a move initially intended to project power but now described by analysts as a logistical and tactical quagmire. The deployment has failed to force concessions from regional rivals, instead leading to a costly standoff that threatens the country's economic stability. Local reports from areas like Nekemto suggest that the evolving geopolitical dynamics are drawing in global powers, further complicating the internal security apparatus of Ethiopia as regional players reposition themselves in anticipation of a potential conflict.