The 39th African Union (AU) Summit opened in Addis Ababa this February 2026 under a cloud of regional uncertainty. Although the official theme highlights water security and sanitation as part of Agenda 2063, the halls of the AU headquarters are buzzing with high-stakes diplomacy regarding the war in Sudan and the friction between Ethiopia and Somalia. AU leaders have issued stern warnings that the ongoing conflict in Sudan is no longer a localized issue but a regional contagion, driving massive refugee flows and economic disruption across borders, necessitating immediate African-led peace mechanisms. Sovereignty has emerged as the most contentious topic, specifically concerning the Red Sea access arrangements. Somalia’s delegation has remained firm, asserting that its territorial integrity is non-negotiable and that any maritime agreements must involve the Federal Government. This stance has found support among several member states who fear that bypassing established international norms could set a dangerous precedent. Meanwhile, the strategic importance of the Red Sea has drawn focus toward the militarization of the corridor, with leaders cautioning that foreign military presence and geopolitical rivalries risk undermining African autonomy. Beyond the immediate fire-fighting of conflict mediation, the summit is attempting to link environmental resilience with peace-building. Discussions have underscored that water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, is a primary driver of migration and community-level clashes. By integrating climate resilience into the stability framework, the AU hopes to address the root causes of fragility in the Horn. Eritrea’s role also remains a silent but significant factor, as its extensive coastline makes it a critical stakeholder in any future regional security architecture. As the summit nears its conclusion, the international community awaits the final communiqué. Expected to reaffirm the principles of non-interference and peaceful resolution, the document will likely call for an immediate ceasefire in Sudan and a structured dialogue between Ethiopia and Somalia. The outcome of these negotiations in Addis Ababa represents a critical juncture for the continent; the ability of the AU to de-escalate these multifaceted crises will determine the trajectory of peace and maritime security in the Horn of Africa for the next decade.