As of February 18, 2026, the Horn of Africa faces a significant risk of renewed interstate conflict. Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Gedion Timothewos, recently accused Eritrean forces of 'military aggression' and occupying Ethiopian territory, demanding an immediate withdrawal. In response, Eritrea’s Ministry of Information dismissed the claims as 'false and fabricated,' part of a hostile campaign. The strategic prize remains the Red Sea, with Ethiopia framing sea access as an 'existential' issue while Eritrea maintains that any port use must be negotiated bilaterally under international law. Regional analysts warn that the convergence of internal Ethiopian insurgencies, shifting Gulf rivalries, and failed diplomatic communications has created a volatile environment where accidental clashes could trigger a wider regional war.